A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
